Massive Losses

It has been a long time since I made a post on the blog, and there is a good reason for this. I think the title of the post probably gives it away! At the moment, I am sitting on a loss of approximately 80% of my betting bank. The amount of losses and the way it came all together has been depressing and gut wrenching to say the least. Everything I backed lost, and the lays just wouldn't stop winning. I think the saving grace has been the bank management I put in place at the start, and this is the only reason the bank has not been bankrupt yet! I have found that trying to make money has been very very hard, and I have tried to be unemotional but I'd be lying if I said that I hadn't been affected.

At this moment in time, I have had to assess and revamp the way that I bet. The solution I have come up with is based on a high strike rate, low odds and recalculated stakes approach for the foreseeable future. Whether this last ditch strategy works is a stab in the dark. If it does go according to plan, then it would take me at least 6 months to recoup the 80% of the bank that I have lost, and possibly even longer. At the moment, my confidence is shot to pieces, and I am trying my hardest to turn it around.

This period has been very hard, and I have learnt some hard lessons, but I am at that point where I feel like a wounded tiger just wanting to attack my bets and see if I can claw back my losses. This I recognise is dangerous and I am putting more pressure on my bank and selections, but I really can't see another way, and if I can claw back some losses within the next few months, I will be in a better position to re-evaluate my methods and processes.

Till then, Good Luck to all with your betting, and I'll try to post regularly to keep you updated.

Testing Times

The past week or so has not been kind to me! I have had an atrocious betting week or so. All my different betting strands have posted a loss since my last update. October finished off with me being down -£111.30, but this would have been considerably more, if my new risky laying strategy had not done so well in the last week. However, since then it has gone from bad to worse. The first two days of November are showing a loss of -£1179.62. This has been really hard for me, as all the losses have come very close together, and over a period of just two days! Looking back at my past results, I will be very lucky if I even make half of the current losses back this month. I think it will take me at least 2 months to recover fully from this setback. At this moment, I do feel deflated and am wondering whether I am cut out for this lark, and also how many more losses I can take! One of the reasons for this blog was that I could put my thoughts and progress down on 'paper' sort of thing, and also to make myself more 'professional' and detached in my approach. In days gone by, I would have really panicked by now, and paced up and down the room, chain smoking myself to death, and getting into a slanging match about random things with our lass! However, this time round, I have not done any of this, and I've looked back at my previous bets, results, and I can't see anything different in terms of the way I have gone about my betting. All I can think of is that I have been unfortunate this week, and laws of probability probably came into effect and caught up with me! The only thing for me now is to hold my nerve, and continue as I have done, and hopefully start clawing back the losses I have made. I don't really want to do anything drastic or stupid, and I will be very proud of myself if I do come out on the other side in a few weeks time.

Slow Progress

Progress this month so far has been very slow to say the least! It's been a somewhat rollercoaster of a ride with some ups and more downs than anything. Firstly, the Stop At Winner (SAW) strategy came slightly unstuck for the first time since the blog started. Up until today, I have recovered approximately 30% of the losses I suffered that day over the past 7 betting days. It was a big hit, I lost approximately 35 points that day. However, my betting bank for this strategy was never in danger at any point. If I don't have another losing day for this month, I am hopefull I should cut this loss figure down, and maybe even break even at a push! My other betting strand which involves laying has been doing well. It softened the above blow and is again in profit for the month. However, with this strategy it is a case of small steady drip feed of profits. The total profit since my last post has been +£338.06.

In my last post, I mentioned that I was playing about with a betting strategy. After a few betting days it became apparent, that it was not a long term solution. There were a few issues that came up during that time, that included losing runs, high stakes for very very small profits, Betfair playing up when you least want it to, and other concerns, of which there were quite few. As a result, I quickly stopped it before I lost this money.

I've been thinking recently of making my betting more profitable. At the moment, the above two strategies that I use are steady and 'safety first' type of betting. I recognise that some days I might lose a large amount, but this is offset by the steady profit drip that I normally achieve. So, I have been looking at some betting forums, and reading up on experiences of different people, and also reading reviews of betting tipsters by genuine people who do not peddle something which they have not tried, and provide an in depth assessment after a considerable period of time. I don't mind paying for tips, as long as it's a genuine service, the cost is not extortionate and past performance is solid, Anyway, I came up with a shortlist of 3 laying tipsters, and after downloading results and playing about with Excel and Staking Machine software, I have decided that a small portion of my betting bank will be a high risk investment strategy. I will be risking 10% of this 'small' bank on every lay tip advised. I did run this scenario through the Staking Machine software and found that over a sample of 1500 bets my ROI was quite low (3%), but the profit in terms of real money, over a period of 6 months, was quite a satisfying figure for me, and would have meant doubling the bank twice in this period. I'm just hoping for a good start at the moment to get me off on the right foot with this strategy.

That is it for the time being.

Back To Work

I've had a few days off from work, but I'm back to the daily grind from Sunday and I can't wait to get stuck in! No wonder I've got that sinking feeling today!!

I was looking at the Betfair Forum regarding the Premium Charges, and a user called 'armida' explains it in such way that I got all excited and had to put it somewhere or tell someone!

SEPTEMBER 2001

Joe Punter: Twenty tenners please.
Betfair Bob: You would be better off putting that on Betfair rather than this betting shop, It could be as much as 40 on there, less 5% comm, gives you over 37/1.
Joe Punter: Really? I will have a look at that.

SEPTEMBER 2008

Joe Punter: Twenty tenners please.
Betfair Bob: You would be better off putting that on Betfair, it could be as much as 40 on there, less your commission, which is your net winnings multiplied by the Market Base Rate, after your Discount Rate is converted from your Betfair Points Total, and applied to the Market Base Rate, unless of course, you have taken a Betfair Holiday, when your Betfair Points will not be credited, so your Discount Rate will remain the same, but you won't be subject to a 15% decay in your Points Total at the end of the week. However, if you win you may qualify for the Premium Charge of up to 22.5% which is dependant on your forthcoming weekly profit in relation to the commission payable for that week or on a rolling 60 week average, which is when your commission and implied commission is calculated and divided by two, which is OK because it can be offset against the £1000 Premium Charge allowance, and at the end of the week you find out what price you got.
Joe Punter: Twenty tenners please.

Let me tell you, It really did make me chuckle :) Ha Ha

Another thing I just wanted to mention was a couple of websites that I have come across recently which are worth a visit. I remember when I first started betting and was very naive in thinking that this was an easy way to make money. I really can't remember how much money I've spent on rubbish e-books and systems that promise riches but deliver a bucket load of rags instead! The first one is http://www.onlinebettingexposed.com/. It's run by Paul & Craig, and they seem to spend their own money testing various systems and ebooks to highlight scams and more importantly point out systems that seem to work. Even though the testing is only done for a period of 1 month, I genuinely feel that the forum on the site is invaluable in that other people post their comments regarding systems and progress and you can easily see which systems are doing well over a longer term.

If you are into following tipsters, then a visit to http://www.moneymakerreview.com/ is recommended. I have been a member for a good while now, and it used to be called The Secret Betting Club. It's run by two chaps called Mike & Dan who are professional gamblers. They review tipsters and follow them with their own money over a considerable period of time, i.e. 12 months plus. They issue a monthly newsletter that review lots of services, including profit and loss at SP, Advised Prices, Betfair Prices etc, Level of Customer Service, Proofing results etc. They have their own forum which is worth it. It is a very friendly place and there is always someone offering advice if needed.

By the way, I'm not 'selling' the above websites so that I can make some money from it. and nor am I an affiliate type person. I genuinely feel that for people that are into buying systems or following tipsters then they are both a very good starting point. If, however you are good and confident in your own ability or despise paying for this sort of thing then that's fine too. That's me done for now, I think it's an early night tonight :(

Bank Update

It's been an interesting week or two. Firstly, the Betfair Premium Charge is up an running, and is probably not too far away from your betting balance, especially if it's healthy and profitable. I've been reading bits and pieces on forums, blogs and articles. I've said it before but Maths is not my strong point, and at this moment I don't really know if it will impact on me or not. However, many people have been shocked and angered by this brazen money making exercise and are going elsewhere. This is bad in the sense that you lose liquidity on Betfair, especially if the big players leave Betfair. However, I'd do the same if I was in their shoes, why pay more when you can go elsewhere and pay less costs and hopefully be better treated! All I'm doing at the moment is checking my account everyday to see if any Charges show up mysteriously, and if they do, I'll be looking at going too!

Since my last post, I have been true to my word and have got rid of my traditional 1 Point Win / Each Way bets. It seems a bit boring in that I don't even check RP Results or listen to commentary that often now, and just check my balance to see if it was a winning day or losing day. It's a bit 'cold' but I'm hoping that this sort of thing will assist me in being more profitable. In that period I have made a profit of £612.70, which again I am more than happy with.

The main thing I have started is a sideline type of betting account, with about £600. The aim of this was to cover the cost of software subscriptions and also to have a pool of small profits that I can use to pay for additional things that come up, i.e. fixing my TV aerial that is about to fall off, or a better description would be a bit like 'rainy day money' if you will. After doing some very basic odds probability I came up with a laying strategy with a loss recovery staking plan and using very small stakes, I intend to keep betting in lots and lots of markets, i.e. 50-100 a day. I'm also thinking of expanding to USA, South Africa and Australian horse racing markets if the trial goes well, just so that they are even more betting markets to go for. However, with these foreign markets, I don't really know what liquidity is like so I'm trying to keep an eye on it. However, the good thing is that in the last 3 days, I have made an excellent profit of +136.71 points. There were 147 bets, of which 132 lost, so giving me a strike rate of 89.79%. Only 2 horses have come in together a couple of time so it's been going nice and steady. My main concern is that I can't use larger stakes as I don't think there is enough liquidity, especially when the losers bite, and the loss recovery goes into overdrive. However, as a means of a steady drip feed of profits to pay for costs and tit-bits for the family, I'm hopeful this will be a welcome addition to some much needed finance. That's me done for now :)

Looking at Figures

I've been going through my betting activity and been looking closely at how to make my betting more profitable. I've decided to get rid of my normal win and each way bets altogether for the time being. Even though I like the feeling I get when a horse I have backed romps in first, I do feel that my money is better invested elsewhere. Firstly, I seem to break even a lot with these type of bets over a period of time. At the moment I was using the advice from Bluesky Racing and my own E/W and Win selections. However, due to Betbrokers going into administration and some of my betting funds down the drain with them, I think it will be hard for my existing bank to recover the losses. Secondly, Bluesky Racing is an honest tipping service. However, since I started in April 2008 I have not yet had a winning month with them, and I don't think I can justify sticking with them especially as subscription costs are £2000 p.a. I do hope they do turn it around, but again the pressure on my betting bank with their losses since April and loss of funds through Betbrokers means that it may be inevitable the bank goes bust, and the best decision is to call it a day. Funnily enough, it has been my own daily basic E/W bets that have performed well. These were simple bets especially in races where there was a very short priced favourite and mainly involved backing the second favourite each way! So as it stands the exciting part of my betting is buried for the time being. I have been looking at backing some horses in a 'system type' selection criteria with its own staking plan, but for now it will be paper trial only. It's very early days but I do think there may be some mileage in it.

The other branch of my betting includes a Stop At Winner (SAW) type betting system and lay bets on Betfair. I was going to try and work out the ROI for these, but sadly maths is not my strong point. I was having a look on my Betfair P&L account, and I downloaded the spreadsheet since this blog started. According to these figures, the money I have won is +£5477, and the money I have lost is -£3908. This has left me with a total profit of +£1569. A percentage profit of 40.2%. (I'm not sure if this an ROI or Profit figure or not, but my heads telling me this is good going!) This is what I will be concentrating on now. Hopefully, by spending more time on these bets I may be able to improve on them. One thing that does play on my mind is the dreaded losing run. Due to the fact that I chase my losses on the SAW system, all my profits can be gone by the end of a bad day. I do try to minimise my risk so that I only lose up to a set amount but when it comes it will be a hefty chunk! My thoughts are that it will only be then that I will be able to see how well my betting bank and this strategy is thought out. I might be lucky and never have a long losing run...and pigs will fly!!

Anyway, all thoughts, opinions and comments will be most welcome :)

Profits Plodding Along

Its been a quite a few days since my last post, and its been mainly down to a couple of things. Firstly, my best mate is now a dad as his wife had a baby in London, even though we live in Yorkshire. She had gone down to see her mum, and found herself giving birth. His car decided to pack up so off we went in my tired old Peugeot 306 workhorse and after getting lost twice, and the satnav packing up midway down the M1, we finally made it a little late to be greeted by a little boy! Secondly, my partner has decided she wants to go on holiday and take the little un to see her family abroad. This means that I now have to make sure I make at least £3000 in profit through my betting by December to make sure I have enough to pay for her costs, otherwise we'll be looking at taking a loan, something which I don't want to do. Finally, the weather has been quite moody so there's not been that many bets.

Since my last post, I've actually managed to grind a profit of £361.19. I had to reduce stakes on the Stop At Winner method due to the weather conditions as the results were playing havoc, and the loss recovery sessions were getting bit out of hand, and the last thing I need at the moment is a huge loss! The normal bets haven't done that well as I've only made a profit of +1.32 points since my last post, and this is the main area I'm looking at in detail to see where I can improve. Ive been reading the Experiment blog to get ideas on what to look for and been using the Patternform site to paper trial an additional backing strategy which is still in it's infancy. The lay bets have been doing ok and apart from a few losing bets are sort of plodding along.

One thing that I do intend to look into is my ROI figure when I get some time, as I suspect that it's quite low due to the way that I bet. I'm hoping to improve it and trim some of the bets that I make, but this means looking back over all my bets which I don't have time to do at the moment. So this goes on the to do list. Finally, I've stopped the trading trial altogether as I found that I was completely useless at it and couldn't predict which way the market was going to go to save my life!