My Betting Diary

Massive Losses

2008-12-14T21:13:00.003Z

It has been a long time since I made a post on the blog, and there is a good reason for this. I think the title of the post probably gives it away! At the moment, I am sitting on a loss of approximately 80% of my betting bank. The amount of losses and the way it came all together has been depressing and gut wrenching to say the least. Everything I backed lost, and the lays just wouldn't stop winning. I think the saving grace has been the bank management I put in place at the start, and this is the only reason the bank has not been bankrupt yet! I have found that trying to make money has been very very hard, and I have tried to be unemotional but I'd be lying if I said that I hadn't been affected.

At this moment in time, I have had to assess and revamp the way that I bet. The solution I have come up with is based on a high strike rate, low odds and recalculated stakes approach for the foreseeable future. Whether this last ditch strategy works is a stab in the dark. If it does go according to plan, then it would take me at least 6 months to recoup the 80% of the bank that I have lost, and possibly even longer. At the moment, my confidence is shot to pieces, and I am trying my hardest to turn it around.

This period has been very hard, and I have learnt some hard lessons, but I am at that point where I feel like a wounded tiger just wanting to attack my bets and see if I can claw back my losses. This I recognise is dangerous and I am putting more pressure on my bank and selections, but I really can't see another way, and if I can claw back some losses within the next few months, I will be in a better position to re-evaluate my methods and processes.

Till then, Good Luck to all with your betting, and I'll try to post regularly to keep you updated.

Testing Times

2008-11-02T18:32:00.003Z

The past week or so has not been kind to me! I have had an atrocious betting week or so. All my different betting strands have posted a loss since my last update. October finished off with me being down -£111.30, but this would have been considerably more, if my new risky laying strategy had not done so well in the last week. However, since then it has gone from bad to worse. The first two days of November are showing a loss of -£1179.62. This has been really hard for me, as all the losses have come very close together, and over a period of just two days! Looking back at my past results, I will be very lucky if I even make half of the current losses back this month. I think it will take me at least 2 months to recover fully from this setback. At this moment, I do feel deflated and am wondering whether I am cut out for this lark, and also how many more losses I can take! One of the reasons for this blog was that I could put my thoughts and progress down on 'paper' sort of thing, and also to make myself more 'professional' and detached in my approach. In days gone by, I would have really panicked by now, and paced up and down the room, chain smoking myself to death, and getting into a slanging match about random things with our lass! However, this time round, I have not done any of this, and I've looked back at my previous bets, results, and I can't see anything different in terms of the way I have gone about my betting. All I can think of is that I have been unfortunate this week, and laws of probability probably came into effect and caught up with me! The only thing for me now is to hold my nerve, and continue as I have done, and hopefully start clawing back the losses I have made. I don't really want to do anything drastic or stupid, and I will be very proud of myself if I do come out on the other side in a few weeks time.

Slow Progress

2008-10-22T21:17:00.004+01:00

Progress this month so far has been very slow to say the least! It's been a somewhat rollercoaster of a ride with some ups and more downs than anything. Firstly, the Stop At Winner (SAW) strategy came slightly unstuck for the first time since the blog started. Up until today, I have recovered approximately 30% of the losses I suffered that day over the past 7 betting days. It was a big hit, I lost approximately 35 points that day. However, my betting bank for this strategy was never in danger at any point. If I don't have another losing day for this month, I am hopefull I should cut this loss figure down, and maybe even break even at a push! My other betting strand which involves laying has been doing well. It softened the above blow and is again in profit for the month. However, with this strategy it is a case of small steady drip feed of profits. The total profit since my last post has been +£338.06.

In my last post, I mentioned that I was playing about with a betting strategy. After a few betting days it became apparent, that it was not a long term solution. There were a few issues that came up during that time, that included losing runs, high stakes for very very small profits, Betfair playing up when you least want it to, and other concerns, of which there were quite few. As a result, I quickly stopped it before I lost this money.

I've been thinking recently of making my betting more profitable. At the moment, the above two strategies that I use are steady and 'safety first' type of betting. I recognise that some days I might lose a large amount, but this is offset by the steady profit drip that I normally achieve. So, I have been looking at some betting forums, and reading up on experiences of different people, and also reading reviews of betting tipsters by genuine people who do not peddle something which they have not tried, and provide an in depth assessment after a considerable period of time. I don't mind paying for tips, as long as it's a genuine service, the cost is not extortionate and past performance is solid, Anyway, I came up with a shortlist of 3 laying tipsters, and after downloading results and playing about with Excel and Staking Machine software, I have decided that a small portion of my betting bank will be a high risk investment strategy. I will be risking 10% of this 'small' bank on every lay tip advised. I did run this scenario through the Staking Machine software and found that over a sample of 1500 bets my ROI was quite low (3%), but the profit in terms of real money, over a period of 6 months, was quite a satisfying figure for me, and would have meant doubling the bank twice in this period. I'm just hoping for a good start at the moment to get me off on the right foot with this strategy.

That is it for the time being.

Back To Work

2008-10-04T18:08:00.005+01:00

I've had a few days off from work, but I'm back to the daily grind from Sunday and I can't wait to get stuck in! No wonder I've got that sinking feeling today!!

I was looking at the Betfair Forum regarding the Premium Charges, and a user called 'armida' explains it in such way that I got all excited and had to put it somewhere or tell someone!

SEPTEMBER 2001

Joe Punter: Twenty tenners please.
Betfair Bob: You would be better off putting that on Betfair rather than this betting shop, It could be as much as 40 on there, less 5% comm, gives you over 37/1.
Joe Punter: Really? I will have a look at that.

SEPTEMBER 2008

Joe Punter: Twenty tenners please.
Betfair Bob: You would be better off putting that on Betfair, it could be as much as 40 on there, less your commission, which is your net winnings multiplied by the Market Base Rate, after your Discount Rate is converted from your Betfair Points Total, and applied to the Market Base Rate, unless of course, you have taken a Betfair Holiday, when your Betfair Points will not be credited, so your Discount Rate will remain the same, but you won't be subject to a 15% decay in your Points Total at the end of the week. However, if you win you may qualify for the Premium Charge of up to 22.5% which is dependant on your forthcoming weekly profit in relation to the commission payable for that week or on a rolling 60 week average, which is when your commission and implied commission is calculated and divided by two, which is OK because it can be offset against the £1000 Premium Charge allowance, and at the end of the week you find out what price you got.
Joe Punter: Twenty tenners please.

Let me tell you, It really did make me chuckle :) Ha Ha

Another thing I just wanted to mention was a couple of websites that I have come across recently which are worth a visit. I remember when I first started betting and was very naive in thinking that this was an easy way to make money. I really can't remember how much money I've spent on rubbish e-books and systems that promise riches but deliver a bucket load of rags instead! The first one is http://www.onlinebettingexposed.com/. It's run by Paul & Craig, and they seem to spend their own money testing various systems and ebooks to highlight scams and more importantly point out systems that seem to work. Even though the testing is only done for a period of 1 month, I genuinely feel that the forum on the site is invaluable in that other people post their comments regarding systems and progress and you can easily see which systems are doing well over a longer term.

If you are into following tipsters, then a visit to http://www.moneymakerreview.com/ is recommended. I have been a member for a good while now, and it used to be called The Secret Betting Club. It's run by two chaps called Mike & Dan who are professional gamblers. They review tipsters and follow them with their own money over a considerable period of time, i.e. 12 months plus. They issue a monthly newsletter that review lots of services, including profit and loss at SP, Advised Prices, Betfair Prices etc, Level of Customer Service, Proofing results etc. They have their own forum which is worth it. It is a very friendly place and there is always someone offering advice if needed.

By the way, I'm not 'selling' the above websites so that I can make some money from it. and nor am I an affiliate type person. I genuinely feel that for people that are into buying systems or following tipsters then they are both a very good starting point. If, however you are good and confident in your own ability or despise paying for this sort of thing then that's fine too. That's me done for now, I think it's an early night tonight :(

Bank Update

2008-10-01T16:11:00.004+01:00

It's been an interesting week or two. Firstly, the Betfair Premium Charge is up an running, and is probably not too far away from your betting balance, especially if it's healthy and profitable. I've been reading bits and pieces on forums, blogs and articles. I've said it before but Maths is not my strong point, and at this moment I don't really know if it will impact on me or not. However, many people have been shocked and angered by this brazen money making exercise and are going elsewhere. This is bad in the sense that you lose liquidity on Betfair, especially if the big players leave Betfair. However, I'd do the same if I was in their shoes, why pay more when you can go elsewhere and pay less costs and hopefully be better treated! All I'm doing at the moment is checking my account everyday to see if any Charges show up mysteriously, and if they do, I'll be looking at going too!

Since my last post, I have been true to my word and have got rid of my traditional 1 Point Win / Each Way bets. It seems a bit boring in that I don't even check RP Results or listen to commentary that often now, and just check my balance to see if it was a winning day or losing day. It's a bit 'cold' but I'm hoping that this sort of thing will assist me in being more profitable. In that period I have made a profit of £612.70, which again I am more than happy with.

The main thing I have started is a sideline type of betting account, with about £600. The aim of this was to cover the cost of software subscriptions and also to have a pool of small profits that I can use to pay for additional things that come up, i.e. fixing my TV aerial that is about to fall off, or a better description would be a bit like 'rainy day money' if you will. After doing some very basic odds probability I came up with a laying strategy with a loss recovery staking plan and using very small stakes, I intend to keep betting in lots and lots of markets, i.e. 50-100 a day. I'm also thinking of expanding to USA, South Africa and Australian horse racing markets if the trial goes well, just so that they are even more betting markets to go for. However, with these foreign markets, I don't really know what liquidity is like so I'm trying to keep an eye on it. However, the good thing is that in the last 3 days, I have made an excellent profit of +136.71 points. There were 147 bets, of which 132 lost, so giving me a strike rate of 89.79%. Only 2 horses have come in together a couple of time so it's been going nice and steady. My main concern is that I can't use larger stakes as I don't think there is enough liquidity, especially when the losers bite, and the loss recovery goes into overdrive. However, as a means of a steady drip feed of profits to pay for costs and tit-bits for the family, I'm hopeful this will be a welcome addition to some much needed finance. That's me done for now :)

Looking at Figures

2008-09-16T22:12:00.005+01:00

I've been going through my betting activity and been looking closely at how to make my betting more profitable. I've decided to get rid of my normal win and each way bets altogether for the time being. Even though I like the feeling I get when a horse I have backed romps in first, I do feel that my money is better invested elsewhere. Firstly, I seem to break even a lot with these type of bets over a period of time. At the moment I was using the advice from Bluesky Racing and my own E/W and Win selections. However, due to Betbrokers going into administration and some of my betting funds down the drain with them, I think it will be hard for my existing bank to recover the losses. Secondly, Bluesky Racing is an honest tipping service. However, since I started in April 2008 I have not yet had a winning month with them, and I don't think I can justify sticking with them especially as subscription costs are £2000 p.a. I do hope they do turn it around, but again the pressure on my betting bank with their losses since April and loss of funds through Betbrokers means that it may be inevitable the bank goes bust, and the best decision is to call it a day. Funnily enough, it has been my own daily basic E/W bets that have performed well. These were simple bets especially in races where there was a very short priced favourite and mainly involved backing the second favourite each way! So as it stands the exciting part of my betting is buried for the time being. I have been looking at backing some horses in a 'system type' selection criteria with its own staking plan, but for now it will be paper trial only. It's very early days but I do think there may be some mileage in it.

The other branch of my betting includes a Stop At Winner (SAW) type betting system and lay bets on Betfair. I was going to try and work out the ROI for these, but sadly maths is not my strong point. I was having a look on my Betfair P&L account, and I downloaded the spreadsheet since this blog started. According to these figures, the money I have won is +£5477, and the money I have lost is -£3908. This has left me with a total profit of +£1569. A percentage profit of 40.2%. (I'm not sure if this an ROI or Profit figure or not, but my heads telling me this is good going!) This is what I will be concentrating on now. Hopefully, by spending more time on these bets I may be able to improve on them. One thing that does play on my mind is the dreaded losing run. Due to the fact that I chase my losses on the SAW system, all my profits can be gone by the end of a bad day. I do try to minimise my risk so that I only lose up to a set amount but when it comes it will be a hefty chunk! My thoughts are that it will only be then that I will be able to see how well my betting bank and this strategy is thought out. I might be lucky and never have a long losing run...and pigs will fly!!

Anyway, all thoughts, opinions and comments will be most welcome :)

Profits Plodding Along

2008-09-11T22:58:00.003+01:00

Its been a quite a few days since my last post, and its been mainly down to a couple of things. Firstly, my best mate is now a dad as his wife had a baby in London, even though we live in Yorkshire. She had gone down to see her mum, and found herself giving birth. His car decided to pack up so off we went in my tired old Peugeot 306 workhorse and after getting lost twice, and the satnav packing up midway down the M1, we finally made it a little late to be greeted by a little boy! Secondly, my partner has decided she wants to go on holiday and take the little un to see her family abroad. This means that I now have to make sure I make at least £3000 in profit through my betting by December to make sure I have enough to pay for her costs, otherwise we'll be looking at taking a loan, something which I don't want to do. Finally, the weather has been quite moody so there's not been that many bets.

Since my last post, I've actually managed to grind a profit of £361.19. I had to reduce stakes on the Stop At Winner method due to the weather conditions as the results were playing havoc, and the loss recovery sessions were getting bit out of hand, and the last thing I need at the moment is a huge loss! The normal bets haven't done that well as I've only made a profit of +1.32 points since my last post, and this is the main area I'm looking at in detail to see where I can improve. Ive been reading the Experiment blog to get ideas on what to look for and been using the Patternform site to paper trial an additional backing strategy which is still in it's infancy. The lay bets have been doing ok and apart from a few losing bets are sort of plodding along.

One thing that I do intend to look into is my ROI figure when I get some time, as I suspect that it's quite low due to the way that I bet. I'm hoping to improve it and trim some of the bets that I make, but this means looking back over all my bets which I don't have time to do at the moment. So this goes on the to do list. Finally, I've stopped the trading trial altogether as I found that I was completely useless at it and couldn't predict which way the market was going to go to save my life!

August Update

2008-09-02T13:35:00.002+01:00

The first month of my betting diary is now over, and I thought I'd just post a quick update of how I did. I have made a total profit of £635.78 for the month. The month started off very well, but the losses during the middle of the month did dampen the overall figure, and at one point I did think I would end up with a losing month. I am pleased that I made a profit which is all I can ask for at the moment, especially with the Betbrokers farce. I did read an article in the Racingpost where it was mentioned that the best possible scenario would be to get some sort of pence in the pound back, but I think I'll be very luck even if I get half of my money back. I did call the administrators, only to be told that their solicitors are looking at the client contracts and will get back to people in due course.

My trading bit is on hold at the moment, as I just don't have enough time at the moment to watch the markets or test out small trading bets, so on the back burner for now.

Until next time, take care and happy punting.

Losses Adding Up

2008-08-25T22:24:00.002+01:00

The past few days have not been good to me. I am still at the stage where I can feel myself getting quite emotional when I get losses, and even more so when they start to come together. Following on from the losses I last posted up, I have suffered another loss of -£398.66 for the period since. This month is slowly going into the red which is not a nice feeling. However, I am confident that I will turn it round by the end of the month to show a profit, even if it is small.

The main 'event' that really knocked me this week, was the very sudden news that BetBrokers had gone into administration. This has really hurt me financially as I don't know what will happen next and at the moment it's a case of waiting till tomorrow to contact the administrators to find out about some money I had in this account. BetBrokers is a firm that places a bet on your behalf and tries to secure the best odds available. It is normally used by people who are finding it hard to get on or those that place substantial hefty bets. I am not one of those people! The reason I used them was that at work I was finding it increasingly difficult to find the best odds for my own bets and for those from Bluesky tips, and as such I was missing the best prices and having to take whatever price I could with a few Bookies without comparing the odds available. Therefore, I had deposited some money with them so that one call would ensure me getting on at a good price. On Saturday I called the number only to find that there was a message stating that they had gone into administration on Friday, and the website would not let me log in. So now, I have to wait and see if I have any chance of getting my money back, and to be honest I am not optimistic at all. I had a quick read of the Terms & Conditions that I initially signed and that states that "Client funds are held securely in a segregated client account with Barclays Bank." What this means in reality I really have no idea! I'm guessing it's not worth the paper it was written on now!

To finish off this very happy week, I started a bit of trading with a small bank of £50 and lost it all. I was sort of doing ok with very small losses or small wins. I then did something really stupid on one horse who went the wrong way after I had layed it. I decided that I would lay it in running but kept missing the price that I wanted and it then went on to win, and with it taking this small bank with it. So for the time being I'm just monitoring the markets for a few more days before I give it another go. On a happier note, BetAngel is the best software I have used so far.

I've been working on my own 'system/method' for selecting horses that i wouldn't normally consider and just paper trading it at the moment, but the past few days it has done well, so I'll keep an eye on it. I only thought of it due mainly to The Experiment Blog and the way it sort of makes you think a bit more. Its a very good blog that is well written and interesting, Highly Recommended.

That's it for today, and I really hope my week improves as so far it's been lousy, and a fitting quote from W. Shakespeare: "The miserable have no other medicine but only hope"

Losing Days

2008-08-17T17:46:00.004+01:00

The past few days have not really gone my way at all. I was doing quite well with my betting but as I sort of expected, the losing run came bounding up and biting my behind. My laying bets have not done me any favours at all and have come in first at prices of 3.25, 7.00, 7.59 & 8.40. These made a bit of a dent in the betting pot! It would have been worse if the backing bets had not come in, but a few short priced favourites obliged to absorb the losses, whilst the EW bets were just sort of broke even. At the moment, the Stop At Winner (SAW) strategy is doing well, but it does get hairy sometimes and I'm torn between not following this strategy due to its volatile nature, especially if I don't find a winner in the first few races or the steady drip of profits it provides when everything goes to plan. At the moment I am sticking with it and exercising those scary heart muscles with it! All in all, since the last update I have made a loss of -£224.09.

The trading aspect is still in its very early stages. I have been playing about with some of the free trials and just monitoring the market or placing very small bets just to see what happens. At the moment, I think FairBot is the best of what I have used so far. Bet Angel is the next thing on the list but I'll have to pay the subscription fee to start off as I remember using the trial last year sometime. So for the time being, Bet Angel is on the "when I have a bit of spare cash" to do list! Using Fairbot and it's weight of money indicator, I placed a few trades using the following basic settings: Offset by 1 tick with automatic counter bet on the other side, Stop Loss of 2 ticks and place stop at 5 ticks, with a the trailing stop loss activated. I didn't do too badly. I made very tiny profits on some races but quite a few losses as well. I've not really analysed my trades too much as I was just going with the flow of what way I though the market was going to go. I have read the manual again and again but to be honest, I don't really understand the settings that much, but I did figure out that this way my trades are not very risky! If anyone can explain the above or even if these are "good" settings to use for scalping about 10 Min's before a race starts then please let me know.

I also paid for some software called Bet-IE Trader. The main reason for buying this was it's supposed to tell you when to place a back/or lay bet and places a bet on the opposite side automatically. I gave it a trial run in the learning mode a few times and it seemed to work. So with the volume turned up as it beeps at you and flashes lay or back on the screen. I then have to click at the available price and it places a bet directly. I tried it with some real money a few times and it just didn't seem to perform or trade very well. On all the races I tried it on, I came out with a loss on nearly all of them. Either I'm doing something wrong or the software is not that intelligent after all.

As it stands, I've still got about 8 days of the Fairbot trial left so I'll still keep on playing and monitoring to see if I can pick some tiny bits up.

Entering Betfair Trading Waters

2008-08-12T07:43:00.007+01:00

Since my last post a few days ago, Ive been busy scouring the Internet for trading articles, tips, software, reading blogs and it really does seem like trading is the way to go. However, I'm finding it very frustrating that I don't really have a clue of the 'how' and 'why'. I found a really good blog called the Racing Traders Blog. Its not been updated since last year, but it does explain the sort of trading that I would like to be involved in. Its called 'scratcing' or 'scalping'...I think!! It goes along the lines of putting a back bet and a lay bet a tick lower, if it gets matched a very tiny profit is made. If not, a lay bet is quickly placed to cover your initial stake so you don't make a profit or loss. That's how I understood it, if anyone knows better then feel free to explain cos I could do with a 'dummies guide to Betfair trading.'

Armed with my knowledge, I went to find some trading software. During the past few days I have used Fairbot. I played about with some settings and using tiny stakes I found that I wasn't making any profit or losses, it just kept saying £0.00 on screen. I am sure there is something very obvious I'm missing but I cant see it. I need to look into this more when I get some more time. I paid for a trial of InPlayMaster, but after reading a few pages of the instruction manual, I don't think that it's for me! I also tried out BFexplorer. You could tell this software oozed 'For The Professional' but the problem was that even after reading the help pages, I am no closer to understanding the software! So at the moment, its back to Google to see what other software is available that would make this trading bit easier to do. All suggestions welcome from anyone who has more of a clue that I do!

The 'normal' betting has had a good few days. I am an additional £691.88 in profit from the last update. Ive not really gone into what my betting portfolio is, but I'll just quickly mention it for those interested. 1) I use a Stop At A Winner Strategy for the first few races. I realise that this is frowned upon by most people as it does lead to chasing losses and bankruptcy. It is early days but I'm hopeful. 2) I use a laying bot to place a few lay bets on Betfair. 3) I use Blue Sky Racing for backing advice. I paid a substantial subscription fee for professional advice. However, It has not gone the way I thought it would. I started mid-April but ever since my bank has been on a downward slope. I am persevering with it as long as the Blue Sky betting bank does not reach £0. If it does, and it is quite likely then I'll be cutting my losses and moving on. 4) Finally, I use my own judgement along with the advice from Racingpost to make a few selections of my own.

That's it for now :)

Starting Out. Week 1

2008-08-07T10:33:00.000+01:00

Its been an interesting week. Ive been spending hours on the Internet looking at ideas of how to make money. Ive come across apparent cash cows for online casino, Betfair loopholes, online cash mach machines and lots and lots of junk! I do have to admit, some of the items were very well written and tried to pick open my wallet. I'm glad to say I kept it shut by sitting on it. I have however, come across a couple of things that I want to look into, but have not yet started as I don't know much about it. One of them is trading on Betfair. A quick search of the Internet and reading other blogs, it seems like this is the most consistent way of making small money, that turns into big money. It does seem like these traders are very disciplined and almost work in a robotic fashion. I do wish I was like them!

My week has consisted of working a couple of night shifts, some very early shifts at work. I do find I have to literally drag myself to work at the moment! Our lass has now decided that instead of the usual 5 alarms going off before I decide to wake up, she has now taken it upon herself to roll me off the bed! We also need to start making sure the little one sleeps in his own bed. At the moment, he sleeps with us and he needs a lot of space. We are going to start putting him in another bed separately, but just seems like so much work at the moment..so this in now an urgent to do task on an imaginary list, which we will stick on the fridge to remind us at breakfast everyday.

Finally, I had a good week in terms of betting. For future reference, a good week = profitable week. I made a profit of £395.74. It could have been better, but a horse that I layed, decided that it was going to win, which it did! This cost me a few pounds. Additionally, a few Each Way tips haven't really performed as I expected.

Anyway, that's it for now. I need to go out and have a cigarette, get a haircut and other bits and bobs that I need to do.

Intro Post

2008-07-31T22:45:00.000+01:00

31 July 2008. This is an exciting and weird time for me. I have been betting for a few years now, but in all honesty, im hopeless. I have good days and bad days, but the bad ones really do get stuck in, they dont normally leave any prisoners! The horse racing internet sites and forums are full of advice, tips and mumblings on money management, staking, betting banks, returns, profit and loss, record keeping etc. Previously, I used to think this was for people who knew what they were doing and had mega bucks to play with. However, after reading various stories and blogs, I decided that I should follow suit and have a seperate account to play with, which I have now set up.

The aim of this blog is first of all to keep a diary that I can refer to, and I wont lose or throw away if im in a sulk! I feel that it is a good way to record profits and losses, and im hoping that people that know their stuff will be willing to provide valuable feedback. I do hope that some will just enjoy reading about the ups and downs.

My ultimate aim is to retire from working full time by the time im 40. Im currently 27 and stuck in a dead end job with no chance of a natural progression. I bought a small house last year and am hoping to pay that off, along with numerous loans and credit cards as well with my winning. If, and this is a big if, I do succeed I will be a very happy bunny. Id be willing to work at tesco's and stack shelves for 5 hours a day in the morning, spend some time in the afternoon and place some profitable bets, and just chill with the missus and little un.

Thats enough for now I think.